Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Ukraine: This Can't Be Good

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/02/26/ukraine-this-cant-be-good/

Good synopsis on what's happening in Ukraine.

"Ukraine is primed for civil war. Russia is primed for building up its
alternative to the European Union, the anti-democratic and Moscow-dominated
Eurasian Union. Ukrainians tend to tilt west toward the EU; Ukraine's ethnic
Russians (about 17% of the population of Ukraine) tilt east toward Moscow.
Ukraine needs a lot of money in aid and loans to bail its economy out. The
EU is militarily weak and with the Obama administration now slashing U.S.
defense forces to a level not seen since the end of World War II (as many of
us warned in 2008 that he wanted to do), Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel
declaring the "end of American military dominance" as the administration
ramps up domestic entitlement spending, the West won't be in much of a
position to do anything if events lead to confrontation. Weakness (and the
perception of weakness) begets confrontation. Obama's force cuts could end
up encouraging Putin to act."

"Putin is a nationalist autocrat, and he isn't stupid. If anything, he's
opportunistic. He did not call this military exercise while the Olympics
were still going on and made no aggressive moves while the eyes of the world
were on Sochi. But he is moving now."

See the NYT article for more details. Ukraine is very divided ethnically.
The western Ukraine is full of ethnic Ukrainians who speak Ukrainian and
want to join NATO and the EU. Eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula is
full of ethnic Russians who want to join Russia. There are also many ethnic
Ukrainians in the east who only speak Russian and Muslim Tatars /Tartars
(decedents of the Mongol Golden Horde) living in Crimea who want to stay
with Ukraine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/world/europe/russia.html?hp&_r=1

By Epictetus

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