s-kurds-preparing-declare-
Probably. Eight years ago, Joe Biden was proposing splitting up Iraq into
three countries, Sunni, Shia and Kurd. Back then it was a bad idea because
Iraq would have promptly erupted into civil war as all three sides sought to
control as many of the oil fields as they could. Plus a divided Iraq would
be in greater danger of being swallowed up by Iran. However, now that a
civil war has broken out AND Iran is being invited in to take sides, there
is less of a compelling reason to keep the country together. Certainly the
Kurds would rather have their own country than not , all other
considerations being equal.
Also eight years ago Turkey would not have supported an independent Iraqi
Kurdistan. Back then Turkey would have feared that that Kurdish PKK
separatists within Turkey would have subsequently used Iraqi Kurdistan as a
sanctuary for launching attacks into Turkey. As such, had Kurdistan tried to
secede from Iraq, Turkey would have been likely to intervene militarily on
the side of the Iraqi central government in order to restore the breakaway
province to Iraqi control. And people in the Middle East are still afraid
of the Turks.
Now things have changed and changed profoundly. As the article states, Iraqi
Kurdistan appears to be working on a deal to de-mobilization the PKK in
exchange for Turkey recognizing Kurdish independence. So now, besides
getting to end a decades old insurgency, it would mean that Turkey would
get a stable buffer state on its southern border for a change. One rich in
oil and gas and eager to do business to boot.
By Epictetus
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