Thursday, February 4, 2016

Cruz Takes Iowa

 
According to Fox News, Cruz takes it:
Cruz 28%
Trump 24%
Rubio 23%
Carson 9%
Paul 5%
Bush 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 2%
Santorum 1%
I have no idea who these Rubio supporters are, but clearly the push will now be on to get every establishment candidate other than Rubio out. If that happens, Christie’s, Fiorina’s, Kasich’s, and Bush’s support will all go to Rubio. If that had happened here, the results would have looked like this:
Rubio 32%
Cruz 28%
Trump 24%
Carson 9%
Paul 5%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 1%
The establishment created this machine. Support, success, and reality are not definitive with respect to how this will end. If it went to the convention like this, there is no reason that Carson, Santorum, and even Paul might not sell their delegates to the machine in return for some sort of policy promises from the establishment, maybe benefiting their financial backers. Rubio could still win in a blowout.
It is a corrupt business.
Don’t bet the Apocalypse is off.

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