Interesting…but except for number one and two the predictions are really pretty bland and safe. The Stratfor’s analysts are being far too cautious in their predictions in order to keep their subscribers on the hook. I also suspect their normalcy bias is still too strong. But clearly these are not normal times we are headed into. Let’s think outside the box here. What we really want to know is how many different countries is the USA going to split up into after the debt crisis and who is going to be running them. Which western European countries will adopt sharia law? Who will Iran nuke first? Which US cities will be raided by Somali pirates?…and so on…
The private intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, recently published its Decade Forecast in which it projects the next ten years of global political and economic developments.
In many ways, Stratfor thinks the world of ten years from now will be more dangerous place, with US power waning and other prominent countries experiencing a period of chaos and decline.
1. Russia will collapse ..."There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."
Sanctions, declining oil prices, a plunging ruble, rising military expenses, and increasing internal discord will weaken the hold of Russia's central government over the world's largest country. Russia won't officially split into multiple countries, but Moscow's power may loosen to the point that Russia will effectively become a string of semi-autonomous regions that might not even get along with one another.
"We expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia" the report states, adding that " It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form."
2. ... and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes….…The breakout of Russia's nuclear weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.
And the US will have to figure out what to do about it, even if it means dispatching ground troops to secure loose weapons, materials, and delivery systems.
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